What's Up In The Climate: Our Climate Tipping Points Are Tipping Over
Much of the last year was over the 1.5°C threshold we were desperate to stay below with greenhouse gas emissions increasing, and that means tipping over our climate tipping points.
October is coming to an end, and once again we are looking at a month set to end at over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Yes, you read that right.
Again.
We’ve been trying to avoid that level for a long time, almost as long as discussions have been happening around “climate change”, “global warming” and the “climate crisis”.
Why you ask? Well, every single fraction of a degree matters for the planet.
We recorded our first full year at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels from February 2023 to January 2024. And the temperatures have been warm ever since.
It is good to note that the first year above 1.5°C can be attributed to a combination of things, but mainly human-induced climate change and El Nino. What is more stark now is that El Nino has ended — we are in a neutral phase of the ENSO Cycle, but we continue to see temperatures that are well above average.
On top of that — something continues to stare us in the face: the fact that we are continuing to see an increase in Greenhouse Gas Emissions and CO2 in the atmosphere.
And that means our planetary health is at risk.
Why Does 1.5°C Matter?!
You may be wondering though, (or just need a recap on) why does 1.5°C even matter?
Well, it is measuring climate based on the baseline of temperatures from 1850 to 1900 (a fifty-year baseline average) and trying to keep increases in global temperature below 1.5°C.
Every 0.1°C above that baseline means more extremes. We see more precipitable water in the atmosphere with more warming — since a warmer world is a wetter world that can hold more moisture. We see more drought, heatwaves, heat-related deaths, severe storms and floods.
1.5°C though was determined to be the point at which multiple climate tipping points would be reached. And that’s the whole point of this article, because we care about the planet as a whole, and it is in danger.
Note: When we monitor how the planet is doing, different scientists and entities break it down slightly differently. We can look at it through the lens of climate tipping points, planetary boundaries and planetary vital signs — which really are all sides of the same coin.
WMO: GHG Emissions Continue to Climb
As we see global temperatures climb, we also continue to monitor the cause of climate change, particularly greenhouse gas emissions.
A new report on the state of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere was released on October 28, 2024, by the World Meteorological Organization. This is one of their flagship publications, and they have been analyzing it since 2004 with a new report every single year.
This year, the executive summary reads:
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ observational network shows that the globally averaged surface concentrations(2) for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2023, with CO2 at 420.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1934±2 ppb(3) and N2O at 336.9±0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, increases of 151%, 265% and 125% relative to pre-industrial (before 1750) levels.
Just for some context, they noted in their press release:
The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.
We continue to see CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere rise.
And in the press release for this report, there was also this quote that I think is important to read:
“The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
What is a Planetary Boundary?
Planetary boundaries or our climate tipping points are a concept of processes on the planet that stabilize the planet.
According to the Stockholm Resilience Centre:
In September 2023, a team of scientists quantified, for the first time, all nine processes that regulate the stability and resilience of the Earth system.
These nine Planetary Boundaries were first proposed by former centre director Johan Rockström and a group of 28 internationally renowned scientists in 2009. The Planetary Boundaries are the safe limits for human pressure on the nine critical processes which together maintain a stable and resilient Earth.
The 2023 update not only quantified all boundaries, it also concluded that six of the nine boundaries have been transgressed.
Crossing boundaries increases the risk of generating large-scale abrupt or irreversible environmental changes. Drastic changes will not necessarily happen overnight, but together the boundaries mark a critical threshold for increasing risks to people and the ecosystems we are part of.
When it comes to the boundaries we are finding a warming world leading to more and more of the planetary boundaries being surpassed, this is leading to our climate "tipping”.
The Stockholm Resilience Centre quantifies the nine planetary boundaries as:
Climate Change
Novel Entities (addition of chemicals and materials to the planet)
Stratospheric Aerosol Loading
Ocean Acidification
Modification of Biogeochemical Flows
Freshwater Change
Biosphere Integrity
And again as of 2023, we have passed six out of nine planetary boundaries, which is leading to instability of the planet — obviously.
New Report RE: The State Of The Planet
Further to the nine planetary boundaries, a new article was published in Biosphere on October 8th titled The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth broke down the current state of the planet into 35 different vital signs.
They started the article with this stark comment:
We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis.
This article really showed you what was happening on the planet.
From the charts below, I want to draw your attention to the decrease in the Brazilian Amazon and the Global tree cover loss. Remember that the Amazon is viewed as the lungs of the planet and is very important to the air we breathe.
But the last chart on the first image here is the really stark one — “Governments that have declared a climate emergency”. In just 10 or so years, that number has increased from zero to almost 2500.
The article noted that 25 out of the 35 vital signs are at record levels.
A Major Climate Problem: Feedback Loops
And as we see more climate factors tip past their tipping point we actually see something even more important and dangerous happening: Negative feedback loops.
There are multiple feedback loops that accelerate climate change. First, in the Arctic we see the Arctic ice-albedo feedback loop. More melting = more open ocean = more heating = more melting.
We see the same with fires and drought. More fires release more CO2 from carbon stores, this leads to more heat and drought leading to more fires.
A major one is permafrost, which when melted releases both CO2 and methane. Leading to more warming and more melting.
We are likely to see these feedback loops impacting carbon stores and sinks into the future.
Climate Tipping Points Aren’t Just Charts and Numbers
We have watched as the planet sees more extreme weather events, billion-dollar disasters, extreme heat, coral bleaching and changes to ocean conditions due to human-induced climate change. This is impacting people and the way they live.
It seems as though every other day, we are seeing some sort of “record-breaking” event. We are seeing death tolls rise from climate-related disasters. We are seeing deadly events that lead to more human suffering.
Because it is not something that is just happening to the planet, it is happening to us as well.
Another banger... Coming down like ten billion tons of water... Gotta read it slowly...